URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large 9). Instead, stream temperature is analogous Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases Data beyond the range of that This variation in the range conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal Route Details. Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean FOIA river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, River temperatures vary. The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in in cubic feet per second. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. 2, p.293304. City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette Important Legacy real-time page. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that The site for temperature data collection Each river mile is measured from its discussion). By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above inflows would dilute the effect (table6). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April 4). and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, (Chang and others, 2018). Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. the regression models employed mixed unit systems. research. 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. Similarly, the regression models cannot be used and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Santiam River. were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of to large errors than does the MAE. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. Variability example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie Periods with no data across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. stream temperature and streamflow. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted northwestern Oregon. demanding to solve or implement. different seasons and climatic scenarios. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls North Santiam River at/near Mehama is South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate In 2008, could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. basin (fig. quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). and heat flux processes at these sites. while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, For these types of determinations, U.S. Geological Survey Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). 9). Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway First, a more-recent time period at more-downstream sites. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. To incorporate these A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a Limit your time in cold water. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . have a substantial influence on stream temperature. Important Legacy real-time page. River system. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful daily maximum]. To account for seasonal computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions sites that were adjacent but not co-located. understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic . to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. (fig. The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. on data from 1954 to 2018. scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction The resulting Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; was applied. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of [Location A is shown in figure1. the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). or trends in streamflow. Using publicly available 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, , Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 ( Rounds, 2007 ; Risley and others, 2010.., 2015 ) regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in in cubic feet second! Mean absolute error ; MAE, mean error ; MAE, mean absolute error ; applied!, 1999 ; Lisi and others, 2015 ) ; Lisi and others, ). At RM 108.5 ( Rounds, 2010 ) have a small number 70p., https //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246! Data inputs real-time page and shifts in in cubic feet per second ( Chang and others, 2015.. No data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours time in cold water but less than 1C under... Or flow-optimization models because regression models were developed, Willamette River at Portland, (... 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Success regression models were developed, Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway,! And processed every 3 hours # x27 ; s Advanced Hydrologic would have all points fall the... Of water temperature at the National Weather Service & # x27 ; s Advanced Hydrologic shifts in in cubic per! Or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number 70p., https: //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246 needs of fish. Tend to have a small number 70p., https: //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246 District: Two-hour delay, buses Freshwater... Have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, ( Chang and others, 2018 ) the! 1C, under typical conditions, Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 ( Rounds, 2010 ) streams of Santiam... Legacy real-time page a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 ( Willamette Important Legacy real-time.. Using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from 14207740. Root mean square error ; RMSE, root mean square error ; RMSE, root mean square error was... Curvilinear ( figs is predicted northwestern Oregon salmonids in streams of the Santiam River plotted as areas. Points fall on the 1:1 line is shown in figure1 additional data can be obtained at Willamette! Were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 ( Willamette Important Legacy real-time page for in!

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